Seven Reasons China Will Start a War By 2017
By David Archibald
China will start its war for a number of reasons:
Regime Legitimacy
Very few people in China believe in communism anymore, including almost all of the 80 million members of the Chinese Communist Party. The party itself is now a club for mutual enrichment. The legitimacy of the party ruling China is derived from the notions that democracy does not suit China and that the party is the organisation best placed to run the country. The latter is based on an ongoing improvement in conditions for the bulk of the population. In the absence of economic improvement, some other reason must be found for the population to rally around the party’s leadership. This may explain the sudden base-building that started in the Spratly Islands in October 2014.
China’s public debt grew from US$7 trillion in 2007 to US$28 trillion in 2014. This is on an economy of US$10 trillion per annum. A high proportion of the economic growth of the last seven years is simply construction funded by debt. The real economy is much smaller.
The Chinese government is likely to see the contracting economy and realise that issuing more debt won’t have an effect on sustaining economic activity. Thus the base-building was accelerated to allow the option of starting their war. This is a life and death matter for the elite running the party. They are betting the farm on this. If this gamble does not work out then there is likely to be a messy regime change.
Chosen Trauma
Japan treated the Chinese as sub-humans during World War 2. Before that, Japan starting mistreating China by attacking it in 1895, not long after they started industrializing themselves. That was followed by Japan’s 21 demands on the Chinese state in 1915. The Nationalist government in China started observing National Humiliation Day in the 1920s. Then followed the Mukden Incident of 1931 and China’s start to World War 2 in 1937.
During the poverty of the Mao years, the Japanese were forgiven for World War 2. Mao and Deng were pragmatists and said that Japan couldn’t be punished forever. China’s recent prosperity has allowed the indulgence of Japan-hating to be resurrected as a form of state religion. National Humiliation Day is observed again on the 18th September. The party has directed that television take up the theme of Japanese aggression. Today 70% of prime time television in China is movies about World War 2. There are at least 100 museums in China dedicated to the Japanese aggression of World War 2.
The regime generates and sustains anti-Japanese sentiment to give it the option to go to war.
Being Recognised As Number One
The Chinese are a proud nation. They actually resent the fact that the United States is considered to be the number one nation on the planet. China also realises that to be recognised as number one, they have to defeat the current number one in battle. This is why it won’t be just creeping increments in Chinese aggression. They need a battle for their own psychological reasons.
This means that they will attack the United States at the same time that they attack Japan. Because surprise attacks are more successful, it will be a surprise attack on US bases in Asia and the Pacific and perhaps well beyond. This most likely will include cyber-attacks on US utilities and communications.
China has structured its armed forces for a short, sharp war. Of any country on the planet, they are possibly the most prepared for war. They have one year of grain consumption in stock and even a strategic pork reserve. They have just filled up their strategic petroleum reserve of about 700 million barrels.
China’s war has nothing to do with securing resources or making their trade routes secure. Some western analysts have projected those notions onto China to rationalise what China is doing. The Chinese themselves have not offered these excuses. To China it is all about territorial integrity, which is sacred and not the profane stuff of commerce.
Humiliating The Neighbours
The importance of the Spratly Islands and the Chinese nine-dash claim is that it divides Asia.
Nine-dash claim (U.S. Central Intelligence Agency via Wikimedia Commons)
China claims that the whole of the sea within its claim is Chinese territory, not just the islands. When China gets around to enforcing that claim, foreign merchant vessels and aircraft will have to apply for permission to cross it. Non-Chinese warships and military aircraft will not be allowed to enter it. The Chinese claim extends to 4° south, almost to the equator.
The worst affected country will be Vietnam, which will be bottled up to within 80 km of its coast. Japan realises that its ships from Europe and the Middle East will have to head further east before heading up north through Indonesia and east of the Philippines. Singapore will be badly affected because the passing trade will drop off.
Japan will become quite isolated because its aircraft will have to head down through the Philippines to almost the equator before heading west.
China ranks the countries of the world in terms of their comprehensive national power, which the Chinese consider to be the power to compel. This is a combination of military power, economic power and social cohesion. When it is enforced, the nine-dash claim will do a lot of compelling of China’s neighbours.
Strategic Window
Chinese strategists see a window of strategic opportunity for China early in the 21st century, though they haven’t publicly outlined the basis for that view. But we can make a good stab at it. Firstly, an air of inevitability is important in winning battles. While China is perceived to have a strong, growing economy that is crushing all before it, that perception of inevitability rubs off on China’s military adventures. To use that perception, China has to attack before its economy contracts due to the bursting of its real estate bubble. This explains the current rush to build the bases in the Spratly Islands.
Another problem for China is that its aggression and increased military spending has caused its neighbors to rearm and form alliances. China is better off attacking before its neighbors arm themselves further.
Another consideration is the US presidential electoral cycle. President Obama is perceived to be a weak president and the Chinese might rather attack before he is replaced. President Obama has made the right noises, though, about Chinese irredentism and the coming war remains quite popular in the US military, in that the different services are jockeying for position, which means they have official blessing to the highest level. President Obama does have some inconsistent policies that aid China, though, in that while a strong economy is needed to fight China, his administration is doing its best to choke the US economy with carbon dioxide-related regulations. The two ends are mutually exclusive.
President Obama spent a period of his childhood in Indonesia and would have heard a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment (the Chinese were and are more successful merchants and shopkeepers) in those formative years. As with Valerie Jarrett’s childhood in Iran, this will affect policy.
Great-State Autism
This is a term created by the strategist Edward Luttwak to describe the fact that China is seemingly oblivious to the effects of its actions on its neighbours. China sees itself as the center of the world and purely through the lens of its own self-interest. This has the practical result that China could not perceive the possibility of things not going the way it wants them to. Luttwak also considers that the Chinese overestimate their own strategic thinking. He says that China doesn’t have a strategy so much as a bag of stratagems, most of which involve deception.Seven Reasons China Will Start a War By 2017
By David Archibald
China will start its war for a number of reasons:
Regime Legitimacy
Very few people in China believe in communism anymore, including almost all of the 80 million members of the Chinese Communist Party. The party itself is now a club for mutual enrichment. The legitimacy of the party ruling China is derived from the notions that democracy does not suit China and that the party is the organisation best placed to run the country. The latter is based on an ongoing improvement in conditions for the bulk of the population. In the absence of economic improvement, some other reason must be found for the population to rally around the party’s leadership. This may explain the sudden base-building that started in the Spratly Islands in October 2014.
China’s public debt grew from US$7 trillion in 2007 to US$28 trillion in 2014. This is on an economy of US$10 trillion per annum. A high proportion of the economic growth of the last seven years is simply construction funded by debt. The real economy is much smaller.
The Chinese government is likely to see the contracting economy and realise that issuing more debt won’t have an effect on sustaining economic activity. Thus the base-building was accelerated to allow the option of starting their war. This is a life and death matter for the elite running the party. They are betting the farm on this. If this gamble does not work out then there is likely to be a messy regime change.
Chosen Trauma
Japan treated the Chinese as sub-humans during World War 2. Before that, Japan starting mistreating China by attacking it in 1895, not long after they started industrializing themselves. That was followed by Japan’s 21 demands on the Chinese state in 1915. The Nationalist government in China started observing National Humiliation Day in the 1920s. Then followed the Mukden Incident of 1931 and China’s start to World War 2 in 1937.
During the poverty of the Mao years, the Japanese were forgiven for World War 2. Mao and Deng were pragmatists and said that Japan couldn’t be punished forever. China’s recent prosperity has allowed the indulgence of Japan-hating to be resurrected as a form of state religion. National Humiliation Day is observed again on the 18th September. The party has directed that television take up the theme of Japanese aggression. Today 70% of prime time television in China is movies about World War 2. There are at least 100 museums in China dedicated to the Japanese aggression of World War 2.
The regime generates and sustains anti-Japanese sentiment to give it the option to go to war.
Being Recognised As Number One
The Chinese are a proud nation. They actually resent the fact that the United States is considered to be the number one nation on the planet. China also realises that to be recognised as number one, they have to defeat the current number one in battle. This is why it won’t be just creeping increments in Chinese aggression. They need a battle for their own psychological reasons.
This means that they will attack the United States at the same time that they attack Japan. Because surprise attacks are more successful, it will be a surprise attack on US bases in Asia and the Pacific and perhaps well beyond. This most likely will include cyber-attacks on US utilities and communications.
China has structured its armed forces for a short, sharp war. Of any country on the planet, they are possibly the most prepared for war. They have one year of grain consumption in stock and even a strategic pork reserve. They have just filled up their strategic petroleum reserve of about 700 million barrels.
China’s war has nothing to do with securing resources or making their trade routes secure. Some western analysts have projected those notions onto China to rationalise what China is doing. The Chinese themselves have not offered these excuses. To China it is all about territorial integrity, which is sacred and not the profane stuff of commerce.
Humiliating The Neighbours
The importance of the Spratly Islands and the Chinese nine-dash claim is that it divides Asia.
Nine-dash claim (U.S. Central Intelligence Agency via Wikimedia Commons)
China claims that the whole of the sea within its claim is Chinese territory, not just the islands. When China gets around to enforcing that claim, foreign merchant vessels and aircraft will have to apply for permission to cross it. Non-Chinese warships and military aircraft will not be allowed to enter it. The Chinese claim extends to 4° south, almost to the equator.
The worst affected country will be Vietnam, which will be bottled up to within 80 km of its coast. Japan realises that its ships from Europe and the Middle East will have to head further east before heading up north through Indonesia and east of the Philippines. Singapore will be badly affected because the passing trade will drop off.
Japan will become quite isolated because its aircraft will have to head down through the Philippines to almost the equator before heading west.
China ranks the countries of the world in terms of their comprehensive national power, which the Chinese consider to be the power to compel. This is a combination of military power, economic power and social cohesion. When it is enforced, the nine-dash claim will do a lot of compelling of China’s neighbours.
Strategic Window
Chinese strategists see a window of strategic opportunity for China early in the 21st century, though they haven’t publicly outlined the basis for that view. But we can make a good stab at it. Firstly, an air of inevitability is important in winning battles. While China is perceived to have a strong, growing economy that is crushing all before it, that perception of inevitability rubs off on China’s military adventures. To use that perception, China has to attack before its economy contracts due to the bursting of its real estate bubble. This explains the current rush to build the bases in the Spratly Islands.
Another problem for China is that its aggression and increased military spending has caused its neighbors to rearm and form alliances. China is better off attacking before its neighbors arm themselves further.
Another consideration is the US presidential electoral cycle. President Obama is perceived to be a weak president and the Chinese might rather attack before he is replaced. President Obama has made the right noises, though, about Chinese irredentism and the coming war remains quite popular in the US military, in that the different services are jockeying for position, which means they have official blessing to the highest level. President Obama does have some inconsistent policies that aid China, though, in that while a strong economy is needed to fight China, his administration is doing its best to choke the US economy with carbon dioxide-related regulations. The two ends are mutually exclusive.
President Obama spent a period of his childhood in Indonesia and would have heard a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment (the Chinese were and are more successful merchants and shopkeepers) in those formative years. As with Valerie Jarrett’s childhood in Iran, this will affect policy.
Great-State Autism
This is a term created by the strategist Edward Luttwak to describe the fact that China is seemingly oblivious to the effects of its actions on its neighbours. China sees itself as the center of the world and purely through the lens of its own self-interest. This has the practical result that China could not perceive the possibility of things not going the way it wants them to. Luttwak also considers that the Chinese overestimate their own strategic thinking. He says that China doesn’t have a strategy so much as a bag of stratagems, most of which involve deception.
By David Archibald
China will start its war for a number of reasons:
Regime Legitimacy
Very few people in China believe in communism anymore, including almost all of the 80 million members of the Chinese Communist Party. The party itself is now a club for mutual enrichment. The legitimacy of the party ruling China is derived from the notions that democracy does not suit China and that the party is the organisation best placed to run the country. The latter is based on an ongoing improvement in conditions for the bulk of the population. In the absence of economic improvement, some other reason must be found for the population to rally around the party’s leadership. This may explain the sudden base-building that started in the Spratly Islands in October 2014.
China’s public debt grew from US$7 trillion in 2007 to US$28 trillion in 2014. This is on an economy of US$10 trillion per annum. A high proportion of the economic growth of the last seven years is simply construction funded by debt. The real economy is much smaller.
The Chinese government is likely to see the contracting economy and realise that issuing more debt won’t have an effect on sustaining economic activity. Thus the base-building was accelerated to allow the option of starting their war. This is a life and death matter for the elite running the party. They are betting the farm on this. If this gamble does not work out then there is likely to be a messy regime change.
Chosen Trauma
Japan treated the Chinese as sub-humans during World War 2. Before that, Japan starting mistreating China by attacking it in 1895, not long after they started industrializing themselves. That was followed by Japan’s 21 demands on the Chinese state in 1915. The Nationalist government in China started observing National Humiliation Day in the 1920s. Then followed the Mukden Incident of 1931 and China’s start to World War 2 in 1937.
During the poverty of the Mao years, the Japanese were forgiven for World War 2. Mao and Deng were pragmatists and said that Japan couldn’t be punished forever. China’s recent prosperity has allowed the indulgence of Japan-hating to be resurrected as a form of state religion. National Humiliation Day is observed again on the 18th September. The party has directed that television take up the theme of Japanese aggression. Today 70% of prime time television in China is movies about World War 2. There are at least 100 museums in China dedicated to the Japanese aggression of World War 2.
The regime generates and sustains anti-Japanese sentiment to give it the option to go to war.
Being Recognised As Number One
The Chinese are a proud nation. They actually resent the fact that the United States is considered to be the number one nation on the planet. China also realises that to be recognised as number one, they have to defeat the current number one in battle. This is why it won’t be just creeping increments in Chinese aggression. They need a battle for their own psychological reasons.
This means that they will attack the United States at the same time that they attack Japan. Because surprise attacks are more successful, it will be a surprise attack on US bases in Asia and the Pacific and perhaps well beyond. This most likely will include cyber-attacks on US utilities and communications.
China has structured its armed forces for a short, sharp war. Of any country on the planet, they are possibly the most prepared for war. They have one year of grain consumption in stock and even a strategic pork reserve. They have just filled up their strategic petroleum reserve of about 700 million barrels.
China’s war has nothing to do with securing resources or making their trade routes secure. Some western analysts have projected those notions onto China to rationalise what China is doing. The Chinese themselves have not offered these excuses. To China it is all about territorial integrity, which is sacred and not the profane stuff of commerce.
Humiliating The Neighbours
The importance of the Spratly Islands and the Chinese nine-dash claim is that it divides Asia.
Nine-dash claim (U.S. Central Intelligence Agency via Wikimedia Commons)
China claims that the whole of the sea within its claim is Chinese territory, not just the islands. When China gets around to enforcing that claim, foreign merchant vessels and aircraft will have to apply for permission to cross it. Non-Chinese warships and military aircraft will not be allowed to enter it. The Chinese claim extends to 4° south, almost to the equator.
The worst affected country will be Vietnam, which will be bottled up to within 80 km of its coast. Japan realises that its ships from Europe and the Middle East will have to head further east before heading up north through Indonesia and east of the Philippines. Singapore will be badly affected because the passing trade will drop off.
Japan will become quite isolated because its aircraft will have to head down through the Philippines to almost the equator before heading west.
China ranks the countries of the world in terms of their comprehensive national power, which the Chinese consider to be the power to compel. This is a combination of military power, economic power and social cohesion. When it is enforced, the nine-dash claim will do a lot of compelling of China’s neighbours.
Strategic Window
Chinese strategists see a window of strategic opportunity for China early in the 21st century, though they haven’t publicly outlined the basis for that view. But we can make a good stab at it. Firstly, an air of inevitability is important in winning battles. While China is perceived to have a strong, growing economy that is crushing all before it, that perception of inevitability rubs off on China’s military adventures. To use that perception, China has to attack before its economy contracts due to the bursting of its real estate bubble. This explains the current rush to build the bases in the Spratly Islands.
Another problem for China is that its aggression and increased military spending has caused its neighbors to rearm and form alliances. China is better off attacking before its neighbors arm themselves further.
Another consideration is the US presidential electoral cycle. President Obama is perceived to be a weak president and the Chinese might rather attack before he is replaced. President Obama has made the right noises, though, about Chinese irredentism and the coming war remains quite popular in the US military, in that the different services are jockeying for position, which means they have official blessing to the highest level. President Obama does have some inconsistent policies that aid China, though, in that while a strong economy is needed to fight China, his administration is doing its best to choke the US economy with carbon dioxide-related regulations. The two ends are mutually exclusive.
President Obama spent a period of his childhood in Indonesia and would have heard a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment (the Chinese were and are more successful merchants and shopkeepers) in those formative years. As with Valerie Jarrett’s childhood in Iran, this will affect policy.
Great-State Autism
This is a term created by the strategist Edward Luttwak to describe the fact that China is seemingly oblivious to the effects of its actions on its neighbours. China sees itself as the center of the world and purely through the lens of its own self-interest. This has the practical result that China could not perceive the possibility of things not going the way it wants them to. Luttwak also considers that the Chinese overestimate their own strategic thinking. He says that China doesn’t have a strategy so much as a bag of stratagems, most of which involve deception.Seven Reasons China Will Start a War By 2017
By David Archibald
China will start its war for a number of reasons:
Regime Legitimacy
Very few people in China believe in communism anymore, including almost all of the 80 million members of the Chinese Communist Party. The party itself is now a club for mutual enrichment. The legitimacy of the party ruling China is derived from the notions that democracy does not suit China and that the party is the organisation best placed to run the country. The latter is based on an ongoing improvement in conditions for the bulk of the population. In the absence of economic improvement, some other reason must be found for the population to rally around the party’s leadership. This may explain the sudden base-building that started in the Spratly Islands in October 2014.
China’s public debt grew from US$7 trillion in 2007 to US$28 trillion in 2014. This is on an economy of US$10 trillion per annum. A high proportion of the economic growth of the last seven years is simply construction funded by debt. The real economy is much smaller.
The Chinese government is likely to see the contracting economy and realise that issuing more debt won’t have an effect on sustaining economic activity. Thus the base-building was accelerated to allow the option of starting their war. This is a life and death matter for the elite running the party. They are betting the farm on this. If this gamble does not work out then there is likely to be a messy regime change.
Chosen Trauma
Japan treated the Chinese as sub-humans during World War 2. Before that, Japan starting mistreating China by attacking it in 1895, not long after they started industrializing themselves. That was followed by Japan’s 21 demands on the Chinese state in 1915. The Nationalist government in China started observing National Humiliation Day in the 1920s. Then followed the Mukden Incident of 1931 and China’s start to World War 2 in 1937.
During the poverty of the Mao years, the Japanese were forgiven for World War 2. Mao and Deng were pragmatists and said that Japan couldn’t be punished forever. China’s recent prosperity has allowed the indulgence of Japan-hating to be resurrected as a form of state religion. National Humiliation Day is observed again on the 18th September. The party has directed that television take up the theme of Japanese aggression. Today 70% of prime time television in China is movies about World War 2. There are at least 100 museums in China dedicated to the Japanese aggression of World War 2.
The regime generates and sustains anti-Japanese sentiment to give it the option to go to war.
Being Recognised As Number One
The Chinese are a proud nation. They actually resent the fact that the United States is considered to be the number one nation on the planet. China also realises that to be recognised as number one, they have to defeat the current number one in battle. This is why it won’t be just creeping increments in Chinese aggression. They need a battle for their own psychological reasons.
This means that they will attack the United States at the same time that they attack Japan. Because surprise attacks are more successful, it will be a surprise attack on US bases in Asia and the Pacific and perhaps well beyond. This most likely will include cyber-attacks on US utilities and communications.
China has structured its armed forces for a short, sharp war. Of any country on the planet, they are possibly the most prepared for war. They have one year of grain consumption in stock and even a strategic pork reserve. They have just filled up their strategic petroleum reserve of about 700 million barrels.
China’s war has nothing to do with securing resources or making their trade routes secure. Some western analysts have projected those notions onto China to rationalise what China is doing. The Chinese themselves have not offered these excuses. To China it is all about territorial integrity, which is sacred and not the profane stuff of commerce.
Humiliating The Neighbours
The importance of the Spratly Islands and the Chinese nine-dash claim is that it divides Asia.
Nine-dash claim (U.S. Central Intelligence Agency via Wikimedia Commons)
China claims that the whole of the sea within its claim is Chinese territory, not just the islands. When China gets around to enforcing that claim, foreign merchant vessels and aircraft will have to apply for permission to cross it. Non-Chinese warships and military aircraft will not be allowed to enter it. The Chinese claim extends to 4° south, almost to the equator.
The worst affected country will be Vietnam, which will be bottled up to within 80 km of its coast. Japan realises that its ships from Europe and the Middle East will have to head further east before heading up north through Indonesia and east of the Philippines. Singapore will be badly affected because the passing trade will drop off.
Japan will become quite isolated because its aircraft will have to head down through the Philippines to almost the equator before heading west.
China ranks the countries of the world in terms of their comprehensive national power, which the Chinese consider to be the power to compel. This is a combination of military power, economic power and social cohesion. When it is enforced, the nine-dash claim will do a lot of compelling of China’s neighbours.
Strategic Window
Chinese strategists see a window of strategic opportunity for China early in the 21st century, though they haven’t publicly outlined the basis for that view. But we can make a good stab at it. Firstly, an air of inevitability is important in winning battles. While China is perceived to have a strong, growing economy that is crushing all before it, that perception of inevitability rubs off on China’s military adventures. To use that perception, China has to attack before its economy contracts due to the bursting of its real estate bubble. This explains the current rush to build the bases in the Spratly Islands.
Another problem for China is that its aggression and increased military spending has caused its neighbors to rearm and form alliances. China is better off attacking before its neighbors arm themselves further.
Another consideration is the US presidential electoral cycle. President Obama is perceived to be a weak president and the Chinese might rather attack before he is replaced. President Obama has made the right noises, though, about Chinese irredentism and the coming war remains quite popular in the US military, in that the different services are jockeying for position, which means they have official blessing to the highest level. President Obama does have some inconsistent policies that aid China, though, in that while a strong economy is needed to fight China, his administration is doing its best to choke the US economy with carbon dioxide-related regulations. The two ends are mutually exclusive.
President Obama spent a period of his childhood in Indonesia and would have heard a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment (the Chinese were and are more successful merchants and shopkeepers) in those formative years. As with Valerie Jarrett’s childhood in Iran, this will affect policy.
Great-State Autism
This is a term created by the strategist Edward Luttwak to describe the fact that China is seemingly oblivious to the effects of its actions on its neighbours. China sees itself as the center of the world and purely through the lens of its own self-interest. This has the practical result that China could not perceive the possibility of things not going the way it wants them to. Luttwak also considers that the Chinese overestimate their own strategic thinking. He says that China doesn’t have a strategy so much as a bag of stratagems, most of which involve deception.
By David Archibald
China will start its war for a number of reasons:
Regime Legitimacy
Very few people in China believe in communism anymore, including almost all of the 80 million members of the Chinese Communist Party. The party itself is now a club for mutual enrichment. The legitimacy of the party ruling China is derived from the notions that democracy does not suit China and that the party is the organisation best placed to run the country. The latter is based on an ongoing improvement in conditions for the bulk of the population. In the absence of economic improvement, some other reason must be found for the population to rally around the party’s leadership. This may explain the sudden base-building that started in the Spratly Islands in October 2014.
China’s public debt grew from US$7 trillion in 2007 to US$28 trillion in 2014. This is on an economy of US$10 trillion per annum. A high proportion of the economic growth of the last seven years is simply construction funded by debt. The real economy is much smaller.
The Chinese government is likely to see the contracting economy and realise that issuing more debt won’t have an effect on sustaining economic activity. Thus the base-building was accelerated to allow the option of starting their war. This is a life and death matter for the elite running the party. They are betting the farm on this. If this gamble does not work out then there is likely to be a messy regime change.
Chosen Trauma
Japan treated the Chinese as sub-humans during World War 2. Before that, Japan starting mistreating China by attacking it in 1895, not long after they started industrializing themselves. That was followed by Japan’s 21 demands on the Chinese state in 1915. The Nationalist government in China started observing National Humiliation Day in the 1920s. Then followed the Mukden Incident of 1931 and China’s start to World War 2 in 1937.
During the poverty of the Mao years, the Japanese were forgiven for World War 2. Mao and Deng were pragmatists and said that Japan couldn’t be punished forever. China’s recent prosperity has allowed the indulgence of Japan-hating to be resurrected as a form of state religion. National Humiliation Day is observed again on the 18th September. The party has directed that television take up the theme of Japanese aggression. Today 70% of prime time television in China is movies about World War 2. There are at least 100 museums in China dedicated to the Japanese aggression of World War 2.
The regime generates and sustains anti-Japanese sentiment to give it the option to go to war.
Being Recognised As Number One
The Chinese are a proud nation. They actually resent the fact that the United States is considered to be the number one nation on the planet. China also realises that to be recognised as number one, they have to defeat the current number one in battle. This is why it won’t be just creeping increments in Chinese aggression. They need a battle for their own psychological reasons.
This means that they will attack the United States at the same time that they attack Japan. Because surprise attacks are more successful, it will be a surprise attack on US bases in Asia and the Pacific and perhaps well beyond. This most likely will include cyber-attacks on US utilities and communications.
China has structured its armed forces for a short, sharp war. Of any country on the planet, they are possibly the most prepared for war. They have one year of grain consumption in stock and even a strategic pork reserve. They have just filled up their strategic petroleum reserve of about 700 million barrels.
China’s war has nothing to do with securing resources or making their trade routes secure. Some western analysts have projected those notions onto China to rationalise what China is doing. The Chinese themselves have not offered these excuses. To China it is all about territorial integrity, which is sacred and not the profane stuff of commerce.
Humiliating The Neighbours
The importance of the Spratly Islands and the Chinese nine-dash claim is that it divides Asia.
Nine-dash claim (U.S. Central Intelligence Agency via Wikimedia Commons)
China claims that the whole of the sea within its claim is Chinese territory, not just the islands. When China gets around to enforcing that claim, foreign merchant vessels and aircraft will have to apply for permission to cross it. Non-Chinese warships and military aircraft will not be allowed to enter it. The Chinese claim extends to 4° south, almost to the equator.
The worst affected country will be Vietnam, which will be bottled up to within 80 km of its coast. Japan realises that its ships from Europe and the Middle East will have to head further east before heading up north through Indonesia and east of the Philippines. Singapore will be badly affected because the passing trade will drop off.
Japan will become quite isolated because its aircraft will have to head down through the Philippines to almost the equator before heading west.
China ranks the countries of the world in terms of their comprehensive national power, which the Chinese consider to be the power to compel. This is a combination of military power, economic power and social cohesion. When it is enforced, the nine-dash claim will do a lot of compelling of China’s neighbours.
Strategic Window
Chinese strategists see a window of strategic opportunity for China early in the 21st century, though they haven’t publicly outlined the basis for that view. But we can make a good stab at it. Firstly, an air of inevitability is important in winning battles. While China is perceived to have a strong, growing economy that is crushing all before it, that perception of inevitability rubs off on China’s military adventures. To use that perception, China has to attack before its economy contracts due to the bursting of its real estate bubble. This explains the current rush to build the bases in the Spratly Islands.
Another problem for China is that its aggression and increased military spending has caused its neighbors to rearm and form alliances. China is better off attacking before its neighbors arm themselves further.
Another consideration is the US presidential electoral cycle. President Obama is perceived to be a weak president and the Chinese might rather attack before he is replaced. President Obama has made the right noises, though, about Chinese irredentism and the coming war remains quite popular in the US military, in that the different services are jockeying for position, which means they have official blessing to the highest level. President Obama does have some inconsistent policies that aid China, though, in that while a strong economy is needed to fight China, his administration is doing its best to choke the US economy with carbon dioxide-related regulations. The two ends are mutually exclusive.
President Obama spent a period of his childhood in Indonesia and would have heard a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment (the Chinese were and are more successful merchants and shopkeepers) in those formative years. As with Valerie Jarrett’s childhood in Iran, this will affect policy.
Great-State Autism
This is a term created by the strategist Edward Luttwak to describe the fact that China is seemingly oblivious to the effects of its actions on its neighbours. China sees itself as the center of the world and purely through the lens of its own self-interest. This has the practical result that China could not perceive the possibility of things not going the way it wants them to. Luttwak also considers that the Chinese overestimate their own strategic thinking. He says that China doesn’t have a strategy so much as a bag of stratagems, most of which involve deception.Seven Reasons China Will Start a War By 2017
By David Archibald
China will start its war for a number of reasons:
Regime Legitimacy
Very few people in China believe in communism anymore, including almost all of the 80 million members of the Chinese Communist Party. The party itself is now a club for mutual enrichment. The legitimacy of the party ruling China is derived from the notions that democracy does not suit China and that the party is the organisation best placed to run the country. The latter is based on an ongoing improvement in conditions for the bulk of the population. In the absence of economic improvement, some other reason must be found for the population to rally around the party’s leadership. This may explain the sudden base-building that started in the Spratly Islands in October 2014.
China’s public debt grew from US$7 trillion in 2007 to US$28 trillion in 2014. This is on an economy of US$10 trillion per annum. A high proportion of the economic growth of the last seven years is simply construction funded by debt. The real economy is much smaller.
The Chinese government is likely to see the contracting economy and realise that issuing more debt won’t have an effect on sustaining economic activity. Thus the base-building was accelerated to allow the option of starting their war. This is a life and death matter for the elite running the party. They are betting the farm on this. If this gamble does not work out then there is likely to be a messy regime change.
Chosen Trauma
Japan treated the Chinese as sub-humans during World War 2. Before that, Japan starting mistreating China by attacking it in 1895, not long after they started industrializing themselves. That was followed by Japan’s 21 demands on the Chinese state in 1915. The Nationalist government in China started observing National Humiliation Day in the 1920s. Then followed the Mukden Incident of 1931 and China’s start to World War 2 in 1937.
During the poverty of the Mao years, the Japanese were forgiven for World War 2. Mao and Deng were pragmatists and said that Japan couldn’t be punished forever. China’s recent prosperity has allowed the indulgence of Japan-hating to be resurrected as a form of state religion. National Humiliation Day is observed again on the 18th September. The party has directed that television take up the theme of Japanese aggression. Today 70% of prime time television in China is movies about World War 2. There are at least 100 museums in China dedicated to the Japanese aggression of World War 2.
The regime generates and sustains anti-Japanese sentiment to give it the option to go to war.
Being Recognised As Number One
The Chinese are a proud nation. They actually resent the fact that the United States is considered to be the number one nation on the planet. China also realises that to be recognised as number one, they have to defeat the current number one in battle. This is why it won’t be just creeping increments in Chinese aggression. They need a battle for their own psychological reasons.
This means that they will attack the United States at the same time that they attack Japan. Because surprise attacks are more successful, it will be a surprise attack on US bases in Asia and the Pacific and perhaps well beyond. This most likely will include cyber-attacks on US utilities and communications.
China has structured its armed forces for a short, sharp war. Of any country on the planet, they are possibly the most prepared for war. They have one year of grain consumption in stock and even a strategic pork reserve. They have just filled up their strategic petroleum reserve of about 700 million barrels.
China’s war has nothing to do with securing resources or making their trade routes secure. Some western analysts have projected those notions onto China to rationalise what China is doing. The Chinese themselves have not offered these excuses. To China it is all about territorial integrity, which is sacred and not the profane stuff of commerce.
Humiliating The Neighbours
The importance of the Spratly Islands and the Chinese nine-dash claim is that it divides Asia.
Nine-dash claim (U.S. Central Intelligence Agency via Wikimedia Commons)
China claims that the whole of the sea within its claim is Chinese territory, not just the islands. When China gets around to enforcing that claim, foreign merchant vessels and aircraft will have to apply for permission to cross it. Non-Chinese warships and military aircraft will not be allowed to enter it. The Chinese claim extends to 4° south, almost to the equator.
The worst affected country will be Vietnam, which will be bottled up to within 80 km of its coast. Japan realises that its ships from Europe and the Middle East will have to head further east before heading up north through Indonesia and east of the Philippines. Singapore will be badly affected because the passing trade will drop off.
Japan will become quite isolated because its aircraft will have to head down through the Philippines to almost the equator before heading west.
China ranks the countries of the world in terms of their comprehensive national power, which the Chinese consider to be the power to compel. This is a combination of military power, economic power and social cohesion. When it is enforced, the nine-dash claim will do a lot of compelling of China’s neighbours.
Strategic Window
Chinese strategists see a window of strategic opportunity for China early in the 21st century, though they haven’t publicly outlined the basis for that view. But we can make a good stab at it. Firstly, an air of inevitability is important in winning battles. While China is perceived to have a strong, growing economy that is crushing all before it, that perception of inevitability rubs off on China’s military adventures. To use that perception, China has to attack before its economy contracts due to the bursting of its real estate bubble. This explains the current rush to build the bases in the Spratly Islands.
Another problem for China is that its aggression and increased military spending has caused its neighbors to rearm and form alliances. China is better off attacking before its neighbors arm themselves further.
Another consideration is the US presidential electoral cycle. President Obama is perceived to be a weak president and the Chinese might rather attack before he is replaced. President Obama has made the right noises, though, about Chinese irredentism and the coming war remains quite popular in the US military, in that the different services are jockeying for position, which means they have official blessing to the highest level. President Obama does have some inconsistent policies that aid China, though, in that while a strong economy is needed to fight China, his administration is doing its best to choke the US economy with carbon dioxide-related regulations. The two ends are mutually exclusive.
President Obama spent a period of his childhood in Indonesia and would have heard a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment (the Chinese were and are more successful merchants and shopkeepers) in those formative years. As with Valerie Jarrett’s childhood in Iran, this will affect policy.
Great-State Autism
This is a term created by the strategist Edward Luttwak to describe the fact that China is seemingly oblivious to the effects of its actions on its neighbours. China sees itself as the center of the world and purely through the lens of its own self-interest. This has the practical result that China could not perceive the possibility of things not going the way it wants them to. Luttwak also considers that the Chinese overestimate their own strategic thinking. He says that China doesn’t have a strategy so much as a bag of stratagems, most of which involve deception.
By David Archibald
China will start its war for a number of reasons:
Regime Legitimacy
Very few people in China believe in communism anymore, including almost all of the 80 million members of the Chinese Communist Party. The party itself is now a club for mutual enrichment. The legitimacy of the party ruling China is derived from the notions that democracy does not suit China and that the party is the organisation best placed to run the country. The latter is based on an ongoing improvement in conditions for the bulk of the population. In the absence of economic improvement, some other reason must be found for the population to rally around the party’s leadership. This may explain the sudden base-building that started in the Spratly Islands in October 2014.
China’s public debt grew from US$7 trillion in 2007 to US$28 trillion in 2014. This is on an economy of US$10 trillion per annum. A high proportion of the economic growth of the last seven years is simply construction funded by debt. The real economy is much smaller.
The Chinese government is likely to see the contracting economy and realise that issuing more debt won’t have an effect on sustaining economic activity. Thus the base-building was accelerated to allow the option of starting their war. This is a life and death matter for the elite running the party. They are betting the farm on this. If this gamble does not work out then there is likely to be a messy regime change.
Chosen Trauma
Japan treated the Chinese as sub-humans during World War 2. Before that, Japan starting mistreating China by attacking it in 1895, not long after they started industrializing themselves. That was followed by Japan’s 21 demands on the Chinese state in 1915. The Nationalist government in China started observing National Humiliation Day in the 1920s. Then followed the Mukden Incident of 1931 and China’s start to World War 2 in 1937.
During the poverty of the Mao years, the Japanese were forgiven for World War 2. Mao and Deng were pragmatists and said that Japan couldn’t be punished forever. China’s recent prosperity has allowed the indulgence of Japan-hating to be resurrected as a form of state religion. National Humiliation Day is observed again on the 18th September. The party has directed that television take up the theme of Japanese aggression. Today 70% of prime time television in China is movies about World War 2. There are at least 100 museums in China dedicated to the Japanese aggression of World War 2.
The regime generates and sustains anti-Japanese sentiment to give it the option to go to war.
Being Recognised As Number One
The Chinese are a proud nation. They actually resent the fact that the United States is considered to be the number one nation on the planet. China also realises that to be recognised as number one, they have to defeat the current number one in battle. This is why it won’t be just creeping increments in Chinese aggression. They need a battle for their own psychological reasons.
This means that they will attack the United States at the same time that they attack Japan. Because surprise attacks are more successful, it will be a surprise attack on US bases in Asia and the Pacific and perhaps well beyond. This most likely will include cyber-attacks on US utilities and communications.
China has structured its armed forces for a short, sharp war. Of any country on the planet, they are possibly the most prepared for war. They have one year of grain consumption in stock and even a strategic pork reserve. They have just filled up their strategic petroleum reserve of about 700 million barrels.
China’s war has nothing to do with securing resources or making their trade routes secure. Some western analysts have projected those notions onto China to rationalise what China is doing. The Chinese themselves have not offered these excuses. To China it is all about territorial integrity, which is sacred and not the profane stuff of commerce.
Humiliating The Neighbours
The importance of the Spratly Islands and the Chinese nine-dash claim is that it divides Asia.
Nine-dash claim (U.S. Central Intelligence Agency via Wikimedia Commons)
China claims that the whole of the sea within its claim is Chinese territory, not just the islands. When China gets around to enforcing that claim, foreign merchant vessels and aircraft will have to apply for permission to cross it. Non-Chinese warships and military aircraft will not be allowed to enter it. The Chinese claim extends to 4° south, almost to the equator.
The worst affected country will be Vietnam, which will be bottled up to within 80 km of its coast. Japan realises that its ships from Europe and the Middle East will have to head further east before heading up north through Indonesia and east of the Philippines. Singapore will be badly affected because the passing trade will drop off.
Japan will become quite isolated because its aircraft will have to head down through the Philippines to almost the equator before heading west.
China ranks the countries of the world in terms of their comprehensive national power, which the Chinese consider to be the power to compel. This is a combination of military power, economic power and social cohesion. When it is enforced, the nine-dash claim will do a lot of compelling of China’s neighbours.
Strategic Window
Chinese strategists see a window of strategic opportunity for China early in the 21st century, though they haven’t publicly outlined the basis for that view. But we can make a good stab at it. Firstly, an air of inevitability is important in winning battles. While China is perceived to have a strong, growing economy that is crushing all before it, that perception of inevitability rubs off on China’s military adventures. To use that perception, China has to attack before its economy contracts due to the bursting of its real estate bubble. This explains the current rush to build the bases in the Spratly Islands.
Another problem for China is that its aggression and increased military spending has caused its neighbors to rearm and form alliances. China is better off attacking before its neighbors arm themselves further.
Another consideration is the US presidential electoral cycle. President Obama is perceived to be a weak president and the Chinese might rather attack before he is replaced. President Obama has made the right noises, though, about Chinese irredentism and the coming war remains quite popular in the US military, in that the different services are jockeying for position, which means they have official blessing to the highest level. President Obama does have some inconsistent policies that aid China, though, in that while a strong economy is needed to fight China, his administration is doing its best to choke the US economy with carbon dioxide-related regulations. The two ends are mutually exclusive.
President Obama spent a period of his childhood in Indonesia and would have heard a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment (the Chinese were and are more successful merchants and shopkeepers) in those formative years. As with Valerie Jarrett’s childhood in Iran, this will affect policy.
Great-State Autism
This is a term created by the strategist Edward Luttwak to describe the fact that China is seemingly oblivious to the effects of its actions on its neighbours. China sees itself as the center of the world and purely through the lens of its own self-interest. This has the practical result that China could not perceive the possibility of things not going the way it wants them to. Luttwak also considers that the Chinese overestimate their own strategic thinking. He says that China doesn’t have a strategy so much as a bag of stratagems, most of which involve deception.Seven Reasons China Will Start a War By 2017
By David Archibald
China will start its war for a number of reasons:
Regime Legitimacy
Very few people in China believe in communism anymore, including almost all of the 80 million members of the Chinese Communist Party. The party itself is now a club for mutual enrichment. The legitimacy of the party ruling China is derived from the notions that democracy does not suit China and that the party is the organisation best placed to run the country. The latter is based on an ongoing improvement in conditions for the bulk of the population. In the absence of economic improvement, some other reason must be found for the population to rally around the party’s leadership. This may explain the sudden base-building that started in the Spratly Islands in October 2014.
China’s public debt grew from US$7 trillion in 2007 to US$28 trillion in 2014. This is on an economy of US$10 trillion per annum. A high proportion of the economic growth of the last seven years is simply construction funded by debt. The real economy is much smaller.
The Chinese government is likely to see the contracting economy and realise that issuing more debt won’t have an effect on sustaining economic activity. Thus the base-building was accelerated to allow the option of starting their war. This is a life and death matter for the elite running the party. They are betting the farm on this. If this gamble does not work out then there is likely to be a messy regime change.
Chosen Trauma
Japan treated the Chinese as sub-humans during World War 2. Before that, Japan starting mistreating China by attacking it in 1895, not long after they started industrializing themselves. That was followed by Japan’s 21 demands on the Chinese state in 1915. The Nationalist government in China started observing National Humiliation Day in the 1920s. Then followed the Mukden Incident of 1931 and China’s start to World War 2 in 1937.
During the poverty of the Mao years, the Japanese were forgiven for World War 2. Mao and Deng were pragmatists and said that Japan couldn’t be punished forever. China’s recent prosperity has allowed the indulgence of Japan-hating to be resurrected as a form of state religion. National Humiliation Day is observed again on the 18th September. The party has directed that television take up the theme of Japanese aggression. Today 70% of prime time television in China is movies about World War 2. There are at least 100 museums in China dedicated to the Japanese aggression of World War 2.
The regime generates and sustains anti-Japanese sentiment to give it the option to go to war.
Being Recognised As Number One
The Chinese are a proud nation. They actually resent the fact that the United States is considered to be the number one nation on the planet. China also realises that to be recognised as number one, they have to defeat the current number one in battle. This is why it won’t be just creeping increments in Chinese aggression. They need a battle for their own psychological reasons.
This means that they will attack the United States at the same time that they attack Japan. Because surprise attacks are more successful, it will be a surprise attack on US bases in Asia and the Pacific and perhaps well beyond. This most likely will include cyber-attacks on US utilities and communications.
China has structured its armed forces for a short, sharp war. Of any country on the planet, they are possibly the most prepared for war. They have one year of grain consumption in stock and even a strategic pork reserve. They have just filled up their strategic petroleum reserve of about 700 million barrels.
China’s war has nothing to do with securing resources or making their trade routes secure. Some western analysts have projected those notions onto China to rationalise what China is doing. The Chinese themselves have not offered these excuses. To China it is all about territorial integrity, which is sacred and not the profane stuff of commerce.
Humiliating The Neighbours
The importance of the Spratly Islands and the Chinese nine-dash claim is that it divides Asia.
Nine-dash claim (U.S. Central Intelligence Agency via Wikimedia Commons)
China claims that the whole of the sea within its claim is Chinese territory, not just the islands. When China gets around to enforcing that claim, foreign merchant vessels and aircraft will have to apply for permission to cross it. Non-Chinese warships and military aircraft will not be allowed to enter it. The Chinese claim extends to 4° south, almost to the equator.
The worst affected country will be Vietnam, which will be bottled up to within 80 km of its coast. Japan realises that its ships from Europe and the Middle East will have to head further east before heading up north through Indonesia and east of the Philippines. Singapore will be badly affected because the passing trade will drop off.
Japan will become quite isolated because its aircraft will have to head down through the Philippines to almost the equator before heading west.
China ranks the countries of the world in terms of their comprehensive national power, which the Chinese consider to be the power to compel. This is a combination of military power, economic power and social cohesion. When it is enforced, the nine-dash claim will do a lot of compelling of China’s neighbours.
Strategic Window
Chinese strategists see a window of strategic opportunity for China early in the 21st century, though they haven’t publicly outlined the basis for that view. But we can make a good stab at it. Firstly, an air of inevitability is important in winning battles. While China is perceived to have a strong, growing economy that is crushing all before it, that perception of inevitability rubs off on China’s military adventures. To use that perception, China has to attack before its economy contracts due to the bursting of its real estate bubble. This explains the current rush to build the bases in the Spratly Islands.
Another problem for China is that its aggression and increased military spending has caused its neighbors to rearm and form alliances. China is better off attacking before its neighbors arm themselves further.
Another consideration is the US presidential electoral cycle. President Obama is perceived to be a weak president and the Chinese might rather attack before he is replaced. President Obama has made the right noises, though, about Chinese irredentism and the coming war remains quite popular in the US military, in that the different services are jockeying for position, which means they have official blessing to the highest level. President Obama does have some inconsistent policies that aid China, though, in that while a strong economy is needed to fight China, his administration is doing its best to choke the US economy with carbon dioxide-related regulations. The two ends are mutually exclusive.
President Obama spent a period of his childhood in Indonesia and would have heard a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment (the Chinese were and are more successful merchants and shopkeepers) in those formative years. As with Valerie Jarrett’s childhood in Iran, this will affect policy.
Great-State Autism
This is a term created by the strategist Edward Luttwak to describe the fact that China is seemingly oblivious to the effects of its actions on its neighbours. China sees itself as the center of the world and purely through the lens of its own self-interest. This has the practical result that China could not perceive the possibility of things not going the way it wants them to. Luttwak also considers that the Chinese overestimate their own strategic thinking. He says that China doesn’t have a strategy so much as a bag of stratagems, most of which involve deception.
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